Second Wave Coronavirus a New East West Divide - Expat in Kaliningrad, Russia

Diary of a Self-isolator: Day 138 [30 July 2020]

It will all be over by Christmas …

As the world’s media focuses upon the race to see which country can get the first Covid-19 vaccine off the starting blocks, amidst wild accusations of vaccine poaching and dramatic speculation that the game has gone nationalist, I discovered myself suffering from statistic-watch withdrawal symptoms. “It will all be over by Christmas,” so the generals said at the outbreak of World War I.

Anyway, as I could hear a lot of noise but could not see the cavalry, I ignored my wife who was chuntering on about a plot to crash the world economy, of which I am not at all guilty, and found the following stats for Russia in general and Kaliningrad in particular.

These are the coronavirus figures as provided by the sources credited as at 21:31 on 29 July 2020.

Coronavirus situation in Russia, from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
[Access date: 29 July 2020]

Total Cases: 828,990

New Cases: +5,475

Total Deaths: 13,673

New Deaths: +169

Total Recovered: 620,333

Active Cases: 194,984

Coronavirus situation in Kaliningrad, from https://visalist.io/emergency/coronavirus/russia-country/kaliningrad
[Access date: 29 July 2020]

Contained: 84%

Total Confirmed Cases: 2835

Confirmed in last 24 hours: 14

Ill: 456

Total Recovered: 2334 (82%)

Recovered in last 24 hours: 11

Total Dead: 45 (2%)

Died in last 24 hours: 2

Both sites from which I have extrapolated these figures cover every country known to man (and Others), so if you want to consult and compare, you know where you can go.

Meanwhile, self-isolating has never seemed so reasonable. It appears that almost everybody in this neck of the woods is taking the opportunity to socialise and get out and about whilst they can.

Reports filtering in to me from the UK suggest that the lockdown mentality has taken root and that whilst restrictions have been eased officially, many people remain cagey, with most of these believing that a second wave is not only imminent but has already begun. Indeed, the UK government and media seem to be actively preparing the populace for the second-coming.

Here, in Kaliningrad, and rumour has it in Russia per se, the attitude is markedly different. Being British, I have already been accused of hiding under the bedsheets, but on those brief occasions when I have upped periscope, although the masks go marching on, the general impression I have is that the attitude-ohmmeter swings widely across a spectrum which starts with hardened disbelief, travels across a broad swathe of resignation and ends with stoical resolve. Paraphrased it goes something like this: it is not as bad as we are being led to believe; whatever will be will be; we will do our best to avoid it but somehow life must go on.

Second Wave Coronavirus

As an experiment, I popped over to Goggle News UK and in the search engine keyed in ‘second wave in Russia’. Herewith is a sample of the headlines my search returned:

No second wave of coronavirus infection expected in Russia — former chief sanitary doctor

Russia can avoid a second wave of coronavirus if everyone follows the rules and observes distance, says WHO

No preconditions for second COVID-19 wave in Russia yet, PM says

I then did the same with regard to western Europe, ie I keyed in ‘second wave in western Europe’. The search returned:

The second corona wave emerges in Europe

LIVE UPDATES: PM warns signs of second wave of virus in Europe

Spain’s second coronavirus wave swells, fuels concern across Europe

And finally, I made the same search, but substituted Europe for UK, ie ‘second wave in UK’. The search returned:

Cambridge scientists fear coronavirus second wave as ‘R’ rate rises across UK

Six towns where coronavirus is causing fears of UK second wave as Army brought in

Government not doing enough to stop coronavirus second wave, says British Medical Association chief

Even allowing for the fact that the last headline is merely concerned with party politics, ie vote Labour and they will instigate a street demo which will outlaw coronavirus for inciting populism, the attitudinal difference inherent in the way in which Covid-19 is reported and discussed is an interesting one.

Forget the argument that the Russian version of events is to play the significance of the virus down whilst the UK and western Europe motive is to peddle sensationalism and stoke hysteria, the questions are: does the first reassure and the second sow panic, does the divergent tone of each influence opinion or reflect a herd immunity to it and, lastly, but most significantly, does the public really care? How does it go? You can fool some of the people all of the time but not all of the people all of the time.

My take on the dominant attitude towards coronavirus in Kaliningrad is that for the majority of its citizens opinion is formed not by the media but in the character-making crucible of history. To understand that statement you will need to have at least an elementary knowledge of Russian history, of the hardships endured and surmounted. After all, if it puzzled such a great thinker and statesman as Churchill ~ on Russia Churchill’s famous definition was “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma” ~ what chance do you have? (alright, alright, there’s no need to take it out on Churchill’s statue ~ innit). However, you can shortcut the history lesson and understand the prevailing attitude towards the threat of coronavirus in Kaliningrad by remembering that Kaliningrad is in Russia, and Russia is the country that saw off Adolf Hitler!

As for me, well, I carry my British credentials everywhere, not only in my passport, and, although I have emerged and have become more flexible in my day to day regime of self-isolation, I remain as cautious as the proverbial butcher’s dog. Wait a moment, I think I may have botched the expression. Butcher’s dogs are called many things, but are they cautious? Mine is ~ it’s vegetarian.